Asia spearheads high-speed growth

Future growth in the market for high-speed trains depends mainly on the expansion

of the Chinese fleet which will make Asia the largest market for high-speed trains, says Andreas Wolf, senior consultant vvith SCI Verkehr, Germany.

More than € 4 billion is currently being invested in high-speed trains, which means the market for high-speed trains has nearly tripled since 2000. This positive development is mainly due to large orders for new trains in China. The Asian giant is focusing like no other country on expanding its high speed network and in the coming years we expect China to account for 50% of the global market volume.

In Europe, on the other hand, operators are preparing for future competition in the international long- distance passenger market by equipping themselves with internationally-operable multi-system trains. However, fewer orders may actually be placed than originally envisaged. through dynamic growth, the market for high-speed has overtaken that for passenger coaches and metro cars. As a result, the high-speed train segment is now the second largest in the global market for passenger rail vehicles which is currently worth around €21 billion

China's prioritisation of high-speed rail, now the backbone of interurban passenger transport in China, is responsible for the sharp increase, which will continue in the years to come. More high-speed trains were already being delivered in Asia than in Europe in the 2005-2009 period.

According to China's Ministry of Railways (MOR), almost €34 billion was invested in the Chinese railway network in the first three quarters of 2009, which is double the amount of the same period last year. In addition to the main investment in the construction of new lines and upgrading of existing infrastructure ¨C mainly for high-speed - more than €10 billion has been budgeted for procuring high-speed trains. At the end of September, MOR awarded a number of large contracts for high-speed trains.

China Southern Rolling Stock Corporation (CSR) won two contracts worth €7.2 billion to supply 389 high¬-speed trains (3040 cars). The joint venture Bombardier Sifang Transportation will supply MOR with 1120 380km/h Zefiro cars for €2.7 billion, while CSR Sifang will deliver 1920 350km/h cars for €4.5 billion. Delivery of the new trains will start next year and continue through to 2014.

China Northern Rolling Stock Corporation (CNR) was awarded a contract to supply 140 eight-car 350km/h trains, which will be built by its Changchun and Tangshan subsidiaries. MOR has already ordered 400 high-speed trains from CNR worth around €8 billion.

One of the main factors here is the maximum speed. While many lines in China were originally designed for 200km/h, the top speed of several new lines is 350km/h. Zefiro (pictured), with a maximum speed of 380km/h, takes this a step further, and is likely to keep China well ahead of other countries for the next 10 years.

Nevertheless, the highest demand worldwide is for vehicles with speeds of 300km /h and above. Of around 250 high-speed trains delivered so far for operation at 300km/h, almost all have been built in this decade. The average age of the global high-speed is currently just nine years.

In China, trains a infrastructure are currently being built at the same time. The demand for high-speed trains beyond those already ordered is largely dependent on the success of high-speed rail, which cannot yet be assessed. Only if there is a significant shift from air to rail and ,at the same time ,many new rail services are introduced by broadening the range of services provided, will the high-speed rail boom in China continue 2015.in the meantime, the capacity for manufacturing high-speed trains is currently being expanded considerably in China.

If demand in the Chinese domestic .high-speed market should fall after2015, the Chinese will have sufficient capacity and expertise to turn their attention abroad. The combination of technical expertise and attractive financing instruments for important high-speed rail projects could play a key role in less financially strong countries in Asia, Africa and South America.

The construction and operation of Brazil's planned high-speed line between Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Campinas is proving a very attractive project as all of the leading players, including Korean and Chinese consortia, want to take part. The objective is to open the line in time for the 2014 soccer

World Cup and the an is to operate it without subsidy.

Such projects will lead to a significant expansion of high-speed rail worldwide to more than 35,000km by 2019. the best growth prospects can be seen in lines with operating speeds of more than 300km/h,the main countries where further construction is expected are China, Spain, France, Italy and, in the long term, the united States. We predict that all important market regions will benefit from this growth.

Our study market Development in high-speed transport included an analysis of the global market differentiated by region as well as the current fleets in terms of operational purpose, quantities and age structures, in addition to future procurement potential. The study covers high-speed rail infrastructure development, current manufacturer market shares and product information, and a forecast of future vehicle requirements by region. 

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